Pascal, a prediction market exchange founded by HFT veterans Ivo Crnkovic-Rubsamen and Matthew Downey, launched its beta platform this month after raising a $9 million Series A led by Union Square Ventures. The exchange targets a market experiencing explosive growth but plagued by thin order books, high fees, and trader-unfriendly infrastructure. Combined monthly volume across leading prediction market venues reached a record $44.8 billion in June 2026, up 75 percent from May, with Kalshi clearing over $1 billion daily since the World Cup began on June 11.
HFT veterans Ivo Crnkovic-Rubsamen and Matthew Downey. Sources: LinkedIn
- Pascal Fee Structure: 0.01 constant with 50% maker rebate, compared to 0.03-0.07 at Polymarket and 0.07 at Kalshi
- June 2026 Volume Peak: $44.8 billion combined monthly volume across prediction markets
- Series A Funding: $9 million led by Union Square Ventures
- Monthly Volume Growth: Climbed from under $5 billion in September 2025 to $24 billion by April 2026
Prediction markets have moved from financial margins to mainstream trading in under a year. The 2024 US election demonstrated viability, while sports, macro, and crypto markets sustained volume beyond that initial spike. Wintermute Ventures, the ventures arm of algorithmic trading firm Wintermute, co-led Pascal’s seed round in August 2025 alongside DBA, betting that founders with trading desk experience could address structural deficiencies no existing platform had solved.
Market concentration masks underlying weakness. Two platforms dominate volume, yet their order books remain thin relative to headline figures. Fees are elevated, retail interfaces prioritize browsing over execution, and APIs, critical for professional traders, receive minimal priority. Pascal inverts this approach, treating the API as a first-class product surface while matching Polymarket liquidity on most contracts at lower cost. The platform lists futures-like markets on companies including Anthropic and OpenAI, targeting institutional participants alongside retail traders.
The founders’ background in high-frequency trading and quantitative finance distinguishes Pascal’s execution. Early users report substantially faster performance and more reliable data than competing platforms. The fee structure alone, roughly one-third of Polymarket’s rate plus maker rebates, creates measurable economic advantages for active traders. As prediction market adoption accelerates, Pascal positions itself to capture traders migrating from incumbents toward infrastructure built for professional use rather than casual participation.
