Alpaca Derivatives LLC has registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a futures commission merchant (FCM) and joined the National Futures Association (NFA), enabling the brokerage infrastructure provider to offer access to event contracts on prediction markets. The registration marks a significant expansion of the platform’s regulated capabilities and sets the stage for introducing additional futures products pending regulatory approval.
- Alpaca Derivatives LLC NFA ID: 0576042
- Global prediction market trading volume: Approximately $24 billion monthly combined (April 2026)
- Projected market volume (2026): $240 billion
- Projected market volume (2030): $1 trillion
- Volume growth rate: Fivefold increase over seven months
Event contracts, traded on prediction markets to reflect outcomes of future events, allow participants to forecast, plan for, or hedge against real-world developments. These instruments have operated within U.S. regulated markets for over two decades. Tony Lee, Chief Brokerage Officer at Alpaca, stated that the expansion simplifies how financial companies can broaden their market offerings through existing infrastructure rather than integrating multiple providers.
Yoshi Yokokawa, Co-Founder and CEO, emphasized that the registration strengthens Alpaca’s position to support next-generation, API-driven financial services as markets become increasingly interconnected and programmable. The subsidiary has not yet commenced regulated business operations as a futures commission merchant.
Prediction markets have experienced accelerating growth as traders seek novel ways to express views on diverse outcomes. According to Pew Research Center data, combined monthly global trading volume across the two leading platforms increased nearly fivefold in seven months to reach approximately $24 billion in April 2026, with total market volumes estimated to reach $240 billion in 2026 and potentially grow to $1 trillion by 2030.
Tony Lee, Chief Brokerage Officer at Alpaca. Source: LinkedIn
Yoshi Yokokawa, Co-Founder and CEO of Alpaca. Source: LinkedIn
